Abstract:
Jurisdictional REDDþ(JR) is based on the premise that results-based flows of finance candrive changes in complex land-use systems across entire nations or subnational jurisdictionsto achieve large-scale reductions in carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degrad-ation. The early JR experiments demonstrate that the promise of payments is, alone, insuffi-cient to drive a jurisdictional land-use system transition. Effective JR strategies are neededthat translate finance–or the prospect of finance–into forest-friendly changes in the land-use system that are embedded in public policies and programs aligned to achieve that end.Adaptive management has yet to be incorporated into JR programs and could potentiallyimprove the performance of JR. To address this gap, we present a methodology for adap-tively managing JR programs that features (a) a“living”mechanistic model of the jurisdic-tional land-use system, (b) an operational theory of change that describes how the JRstrategy will intervene in this system to lower emissions, (c) an annual or biennial assess-ment process that revisits the theory of change through an independent group of expertsand quantitative analysis of spatially-explicit components of the strategy, and (d) a decision-making body for adaptively refining the strategy based on the assessment. The method-ology is illustrated for Ecuador’s national JR program, the“REDDþAction Plan”(AP), thathas secured commitments of results-based payments and international cooperation fundstotaling US $120 million.